Subjective Probability ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage’s theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence. ∗Prepared for The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. † Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston IL 60208. ‡ Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston IL 60208. At the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign until June 2010.
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